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 Russia-Ukraine War 
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SurfPerch wrote:
blah blah, Puitin bad...
With that I'd rather see the thread focusing mostly on actual events of the war as it happens to be interesting , w/o turning it into "Tucker TV" channel. I'm sure everybody knows where to find him. :) Even Russians. :) Anybody interested though is free to open a "Tucker TV" thread, or "How Ukraine deserves being annihilated by Russia", or "F**ck Ukraine! Give me the money!", "Destruction of yellow-blue biomass is not a genocide!" etc. Enjoy last freedoms, while they last... :)


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Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:03 am
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Yeah, no threats here, move along...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-talks-us-about-hosting-nuclear-weapons


Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:54 am
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At the height of the Cold War in 1971 Europe had 7800 nuclear weapons based there. The fact that Putin in his paranoia and Russians under his "education" about "threat from NATO" missed 98% reduction of that arsenal in post-Soviet period is plane weird and/or stupid. It's only logical that starting a new Cold War with the West will increase, not decrease levels of deterrent, including nuclear, in Europe.

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Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:05 am
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JohnMBrowning wrote:
hkhnm wrote:
movingviolation wrote:


There are a few problems. How can you have a fair vote under Russian occupation? Would Russia accept a vote to remain in Ukraine? Do the Russians really want a deal and what stops Russia from just invading again to take all of Ukraine over once the deal is done?

And would a vote even be legal under Ukrainian law?


You think the 2020 election was fair?
But you naturally assume that the Ukraine election was somehow coerced....
Word is soldiers with guns were protecting/guarding/insuring the integrity of of the vote ---- something WE lack here.


I have no doubt the Russian run vote was rigged. What would have been the result of a fair vote? Who knows, but not 97% or 99%.

The other questions need an answer though. Let's say that a "deal" is made with Russia to cede some of this territory. Wouldn't Russia just view that as a pause in the war, build back to to full strength, and resume the invasion?

A deal would require security guarantees of some kind and that has not been discussed and it's not even clear how to achieve that.


Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:24 pm
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Ukraine is the victim of a larger conflict between empires that will decide who rules Europe. Right now it looks like EU/NATO gang in Brussels has already won as the Russian military has decayed into a paper tiger.


Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:07 pm
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SurfPerch wrote:


At the height of the Cold War in 1971 Europe had 7800 nuclear weapons based there. The fact that Putin in his paranoia and Russians under his "education" about "threat from NATO" missed 98% reduction of that arsenal in post-Soviet period is plane weird and/or stupid. It's only logical that starting a new Cold War with the West will increase, not decrease levels of deterrent, including nuclear, in Europe.


Paranoia? NATO expanded into Eastern Europe rather than dissolve like the Warsaw Pact.

Again, Ukraine is but a pawn in a larger conflict between empires.


Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:11 pm
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Sixgun_Symphony wrote:
Ukraine is the victim of a larger conflict between empires that will decide who rules Europe. Right now it looks like EU/NATO gang in Brussels has already won as the Russian military has decayed into a paper tiger.

I wouldn't be to sure about that yet.... Putin has been very 'restrained' so far in the areas he has annexed. Once its ratified, I would think he will go balls out to protect it.

There is the nagging question --- Why is NATO intervening on behalf of a non NATO country? Because they are the 'GOOD guys' ??? NATO controlled by the EU --- EU breaking/fracturing apart... See where I'm going ?...?...?

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Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:48 pm
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JohnMBrowning wrote:
Sixgun_Symphony wrote:
Ukraine is the victim of a larger conflict between empires that will decide who rules Europe. Right now it looks like EU/NATO gang in Brussels has already won as the Russian military has decayed into a paper tiger.

I wouldn't be to sure about that yet.... Putin has been very 'restrained' so far in the areas he has annexed. Once its ratified, I would think he will go balls out to protect it.

There is the nagging question --- Why is NATO intervening on behalf of a non NATO country? Because they are the 'GOOD guys' ??? NATO controlled by the EU --- EU breaking/fracturing apart... See where I'm going ?...?...?


Putin just promoted Kadyrov (maybe spelled that wrong), the Chechen general. Last week that guy was quoted in the media as saying Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons.

It's not clear that would actually be enough to reverse their battlefield losses but it's a sign they are willing to take increased risks (whether nuclear or something else).


Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:32 pm
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Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:00 pm
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Sixgun_Symphony wrote:
SurfPerch wrote:


At the height of the Cold War in 1971 Europe had 7800 nuclear weapons based there. The fact that Putin in his paranoia and Russians under his "education" about "threat from NATO" missed 98% reduction of that arsenal in post-Soviet period is plane weird and/or stupid. It's only logical that starting a new Cold War with the West will increase, not decrease levels of deterrent, including nuclear, in Europe.


Paranoia? NATO expanded into Eastern Europe rather than dissolve like the Warsaw Pact.

Again, Ukraine is but a pawn in a larger conflict between empires.


Of course , paranoia - does anybody else seriously believe that NATO is out to conquer nuclear Russia? :D The eastward expansion of NATO while removing actual nuclear threats to Russia was driven mostly by quite historically justified fear in former Warsaw Pact and Baltic countries of Russia emerging, as usual, from a turbulent decade of post-Soviet crisis as revanchist non-democratic country hell-bent on imperial restoration. If anything, events after last NATO expansion in 2004 proved these fears quite justified and those who did not get on these security guarantees musical chair suffer death, destruction and land grabs from Russia.

The word "empire" is quite vague. One can call McDonalds a fast food "empire". Would you be interested to expand on what "empires" are in conflict now?

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Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:00 pm
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Just finished watching The Greatest Beer Run Ever…

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Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:43 pm
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Plan B is actually repeating Plan A.... it just involves much more alcohol.

Of the ten voices I hear in my head, only three keep telling me NOT to shoot....
Do I go with the majority or common sense?


Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:28 pm
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SurfPerch wrote:
Sixgun_Symphony wrote:
SurfPerch wrote:


At the height of the Cold War in 1971 Europe had 7800 nuclear weapons based there. The fact that Putin in his paranoia and Russians under his "education" about "threat from NATO" missed 98% reduction of that arsenal in post-Soviet period is plane weird and/or stupid. It's only logical that starting a new Cold War with the West will increase, not decrease levels of deterrent, including nuclear, in Europe.


Paranoia? NATO expanded into Eastern Europe rather than dissolve like the Warsaw Pact.

Again, Ukraine is but a pawn in a larger conflict between empires.


Of course , paranoia - does anybody else seriously believe that NATO is out to conquer nuclear Russia? :D The eastward expansion of NATO while removing actual nuclear threats to Russia was driven mostly by quite historically justified fear in former Warsaw Pact and Baltic countries of Russia emerging, as usual, from a turbulent decade of post-Soviet crisis as revanchist non-democratic country hell-bent on imperial restoration. If anything, events after last NATO expansion in 2004 proved these fears quite justified and those who did not get on these security guarantees musical chair suffer death, destruction and land grabs from Russia.

The word "empire" is quite vague. One can call McDonalds a fast food "empire". Would you be interested to expand on what "empires" are in conflict now?


Consider the domino theory to explain communist expansionism during the Cold War. We fought in Korea and Vietnam to contain the spread of communism. The reasoning was that it was better to fight them "over there" than on our border.

Now consider Russia's POV, It was fifteen years ago that Putin warned the West not to expand NATO onto Russia's borders, yet the gang in Brussels decided to move into Ukraine.


Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:46 pm
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Sixgun_Symphony wrote:
Consider the domino theory to explain communist expansionism during the Cold War. We fought in Korea and Vietnam to contain the spread of communism. The reasoning was that it was better to fight them "over there" than on our border.

Now consider Russia's POV, It was fifteen years ago that Putin warned the West not to expand NATO onto Russia's borders, yet the gang in Brussels decided to move into Ukraine.


Not sure if fighting a preventive war on its borders so that there will be no unfriendly action on that same border in a future makes sense to me. Actual hot war on the border against Nato supported neighbor vs. same imaginary potential war in Putin's cranium doesn't sound like a rational choice to me. Moreover aggressive steps taken by Russia since 2014 literally pushed Ukrainian public opinion into NATO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E ... _relations
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According to polls conducted between 2005 and 2013, Ukrainian public support of NATO membership remained low. However, since the Russo-Ukrainian War and the annexation of Crimea, public support for Ukrainian membership in NATO has risen greatly. Since June 2014, polls showed that about 50% of those asked supported Ukrainian NATO membership. Some 69% of Ukrainians want to join NATO, according to a June 2017 poll by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, compared to 28% support in 2012 when Yanukovych was in power.


I think I had enough respect for Putin's strategic mindset at the time to believe that "NATO expansion concerns" after Europe practically disarmed itself and helped prostrated Russia to get their sh*t together after awful post-Soviet crisis decade is nothing but a disingenuous pose, a "threat from the West propaganda cover shtick at home and for naive abroad, diversion to mask preparations to launch a war for a new world order working on China/Africa/BRICS axis. In that sense Ukraine since 2014 was really meant as a true proxy war by Russia, raping a country with impunity while fantasizing of humiliated "collective West" in its stead to bring this house of cards down.

That's why his 2007 Munich speech had only one paragraph about NATO expansion and multiple pages about his desire to end the post-Soviet "unipolar" world order.... And here we are... I'm not a big fan of the US-led global world order that brought ruin, impoverishment and unheard of corruption to this country to create modern China - but boy I'm not looking forward to Russia-China old-fashioned violent imperial conquests and doodling on the world map either...

I'm curious, though, about your choice of words - "gang in Brussels" (I understand in reference to NATO? Or EU?) What's the story here if you care to explain it?..

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Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

Ronald Reagan Oct. 27, 1964


Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:11 am
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Russia is losing on the ground in Ukraine but doing better in the economic war.

Europe has a real energy crisis, their industry may not be competitive at the price they will need to pay for energy.

In that context Putin got OPEC to cut production which has the double effect of raising Europe's cost even more while increasing Russia's oil revenue.


Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:24 am
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