I think thst's what I said (more concisely) twice.

"Asymptomatic carriers". Without that number, they're playing games,wrecking economies, destroying rights.

Yes and no.
Yes, the number of asymptomatic carrier will go up. But no, because we don't know what percentage of carriers are asymptomatic, and that's the biggest problem with his data. It's too big of an assumption.

Say you test 10,000 people for a disease. In order to be tested at all, there is a criteria to be met, that criteria being a certain set of symptoms. All 10,000 have those symptoms. Of those tested, only 10% are positive, so 1,000 people. Of those positive, 10% die. So we have a 10% mortality rate.
So, 10,000 tested
1,000 positive
100 dead.
We know that some people are asymptomatic, but we dont know how many, because only symptomatic people are tested in the first place.
For that reason, it is highly inappropriate to take the same ratios above and apply only the positivity rate to your entire population of, say, 1,000,000, because only people who show symptoms are tested, and 9,980,000 people aren't showing symptoms.

You've extrapolated the positivity rate to your entire population of 1,000,000, but not the mortality rate. So what used to be a 10% mortality rate is now a 0.1%.

We're missing any data that tells us exactly what percentage of people will be asymptomatic. Once you have that, you could make a more accurate assessment of whether or not the steps taken were overkill.

The key is that the testing does need to be random, not just people who likely have Covid-19, and already presenting with symptoms. Of course that percentage is going to be higher, and you can't apply that to the whole state. As antibody testing gets more accurate and widespread, we'll know the real number.

I think we've proven we can bring the R0 down in this state, but at a fairly high cost. I mentioned many pages ago in this thread that you either control the virus or trash the economy, and it's a tough balance. But, if you don't control the virus, the economy is trashed anyway. It's kind of a lose-lose situation.

Personally, I have no hope for a vaccine, and if there was one I probably wouldn't take it. I also think we're probably all going to get this eventually, whether it's this year, or 5 years from now. The key this go-around was to prevent going over the capacity of our healthcare system. We've actually done the opposite with doctors, nurses, medical staff getting furloughed. There should be a balance.

"Bottom line" it Phil. He said "'splain it to a 5 year old".

We can't test everyone, so everyone has to suffer.

If you claim that the extrapolation should be applied to mortality, then where are all of these missing dead people? The mortality is a known value (although it appears that those numbers claimed to be Covid-19 as the cause may be inflated and not accurate).

Look, there's a reason I don't have or want kids, alright?

I'm claiming the opposite. You shouldn't be extrapolating either one to the entire population until you have an accurate picture of the virus in it's entirety. It just seems particularly inappropriate to assume that there are so many more unknown cases based on a sample group that has a particular set of criteria.
The virus has only been around (officially) for a couple months in the US. We won't have a totally accurate data set for many more months. More is learned every day, at a rapid pace (have I mentioned before that the US healthcare industry is serious business?), these assumptions can't be made yet.

Gotcha! [Mobile-emoji]

So, to follow, no asymptomatic#, means no true infection rate or "contagious-ness". We're furloughing medical staff and wrecking ‘Merica because of media/TDS driven fear.

I have to agree with Rene's last post a couple pages back.

We may not know the 'entire picture', and may never have a complete understanding. We know what we have experienced in the extreme cases, and based on that, there are some that think the actions of some governments were/are overbearing.

What we know is that shutting down our economy has extremely negative consequences.

We're seeing impacts in the food supply. When people can't feed their families, things go south quickly.

No argument there. I actually agree with the sentiment from the two docs that we need to start letting off. I just think they are conflating a bunch of different numbers that don't mean what they think it means.

America's mass hog cull begins with meat to rot in landfills
<Snip>

Once the slowdown occurs, it's gonna take time to ramp production back up.

Hypochondriacish. You are so adamant about this virus, that you let it invade your life. How many dogs have been hit with it in this country? Magically one of the most vocal person about this virus has dogs that got it..

Actually, it's widely now believed that a lot of people died in the US prior to any testing. And that's supported by the fact we in the US were not testing and didn't have tests until MID-MARCH. So all the hysteria about "over-reporting" is simply unsupported by the facts or evidence. Medical EXPERTS are making decisions on cause of death based on their PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY and actual symptoms of CV19 in absence of a test. They aren't pulling numbers out of thin air. And, as seen in PA, where there are mistaken over-counting that is corrected. With now >59,000 dead, that would require a lot of over-counting to even dent that total. And it's quite the OPPOSITE actually. Plenty of articles out there from the US and abroad showing massive UNDER reporting due to logistics, lack of tests, lack of time, lack of professionals, people dying at home diagnosed, etc. I've read 1/2 dozen articles stating as much.

Likewise, many regions are experiencing many times the average number of deaths for this time of year. That strongly suggests a CV19 link given the abnormal increase in deaths.




"wrecking America," and "overbearing" and "extremely negative consequences."

Remind me, which side is the hysterical side?

Well to my knowledge, the CV19 has killed more American in about 2 months than 10 years of the Vietnam war managed to kill. Over 59,000 as I type this.

Contrast that with these pretty minor inconveniences and some lost money, most of Americans will be compensated for the time-off, has directly killed zero confirmed Americans. Sure, there's been a few killed by the individual bad actors (foolishly) released from prison, and some other idiotic behavior. But contrast that with the 100 people daily that aren't dying in car accidents as well, and it's a net gain on that angle too.

Look, I get it, many people are frustrated. Me too...

But to continue to deny the reality of CV19 and it's highly contagious and highly deadly attributes just makes folks look like flat earthers at this point. What more proof do you need? In 2 months it's ravaged the nation WITH our lock-downs and isolation in place. Had we not taken these measures we'd easily be looking at 10x to 100x these death rates. Are you prepared to lose 1/2 million or several million Americans in a couple months, for the trade off of going to pizza hut and getting a haircut???

I sometimes think I have/have had it.
Been sick for almost two months.
Used to be tired a lot, stuffy or runny nose.
Couldn't taste food.
But no fever, no cough, lungs are clear so they won't test me.
Figured if I had it, I'd be dead by now. Hahaha
My kids were coughing for two months.
Told the youngest to take some DM cough syrup or they were going to send him home from school.